Armistice Capital Adds to Freshpet as Fresh Food Outgrows a Slow-Growing Dog Food Market

Freshpet Inc. reported net sales of $305.6 million for the three months ended June 30, 2026, an increase of 15.5% from the same period a year earlier. Higher prices played almost no part. Volume grew 15.7%, and price and mix took away 0.2 percentage points, according to results the company released on Aug. 5.

The largest dog food companies grew far more slowly in their most recent quarters. General Mills, which owns Blue Buffalo, said its own dog food sales rose at a low-single-digit rate in its fiscal fourth quarter. Nestlé’s Purina PetCare division reported 2.8% organic growth for the second quarter of 2026, a figure that covers all of its pet sales worldwide. Measured over a longer stretch, the category has grown faster, mostly on price. William Blair calculated 6% annual growth in measured-retail dog food sales from 2021 to 2025, and it attributed most of the gain to higher spending per household rather than more households buying.

Several institutional investors reported Freshpet holdings for the June quarter. Armistice Capital held 1,260,702 shares as of June 30, a stake worth about $74.5 million, according to 13F data compiled by InsiderSet. StockZoa’s tracking shows Armistice’s share count rose 15% from March. BlackRock reported 5,886,208 shares, Wellington Management Group 2,829,688 and State Street 1,603,257. Vanguard spread its holdings across several entities, with Vanguard Portfolio Management the largest at 2,936,578 shares.

Volume, Households and Shelf Space

Freshpet lifted its 2026 outlook alongside the second-quarter numbers. The company now expects net sales growth of 10% to 12%, compared with 8% to 11% before, and adjusted EBITDA of $210 million to $220 million, compared with $205 million to $215 million. It kept capital spending guidance at about $150 million and still expects positive free cash flow for the year.

“Our second quarter performance demonstrates the strength and resilience of our business model,” Chief Executive Billy Cyr said in the release. He also addressed rivals directly. “Despite economic headwinds and new competitors, we grew significantly faster than the category,” Cyr said, according to Pet Food Processing.

The volume came from two places. Freshpet sold to 15.9 million households in the 12 months ending June 28, up about 800,000 from a year earlier, according to Numerator panel data in the company’s investor presentation. Those households spent an average of $117 on Freshpet over the year. That was 7% more than the year before and well above the $81 average for 2022.

Heavy users generate most of the revenue. Freshpet calls them MVP households, and there were 2.6 million of them in the latest period, or 16% of all buyers. They accounted for 71% of sales and spend about five times what the average household spends, according to MarketBeat’s summary of the earnings call.

The pace of new buyers has eased. Household growth was 19% in 2024 and 13% in 2025, and it slowed to 5% in the latest 12 months. Chief Operating Officer Nicki Baty told analysts the company is moving away from a trial-driven model toward a “more durable consumer franchise,” MarketBeat reported.

Freshpet also widened its retail footprint. Total distribution points rose 13% in the quarter. At the end of June, Freshpet products were sold in 30,721 stores, 286 more than at the end of March. A quarter of those stores had two or three branded Freshpet fridges. Digital orders grew 41% and accounted for 16.7% of sales. Management plans to reach at least 700 rural lifestyle stores by the end of the year, and a third product is in testing at club retailers.

The Fridge Network Behind the Numbers

Freshpet’s store business runs through company-branded refrigerators placed inside retailers rather than through the dry-food aisle. As of June 30, 78% of delivered sales moved through that fridge network, the investor presentation shows. Compared with a year earlier, the number of stores grew 5%, the number of fridges 5% and refrigerated cubic footage 6%.

Growth in that model depends on physical placement. Each fridge occupies floor space in a store and has to be kept stocked with perishable food. Three of every four Freshpet stores have one fridge. The company operates 33 larger “Fridge Islands” and does not expect to add materially to that number in 2026, according to MarketBeat.

First-quarter results followed the same pattern. Net sales rose 13.1% to $297.6 million, with volume up 15% and price and mix down 2%. Household penetration increased 8% and buy rate 6% during that quarter, the first-quarter presentation shows. E-commerce made up 16.1% of sales, and the company described the consumer environment as uncertain.

The company’s internal model estimates its addressable market at 36 million households as of 2025, compared with 27 million in 2023 and 33 million in 2024. Freshpet counted 15.9 million buying households in its latest period. Its MVP group has more than doubled since 2022, when it numbered 1.2 million households and made up 11% of buyers.

Consumer Stocks in Health Care-Focused Portfolios

Armistice, based in New York, is known mainly for pharmaceutical and biotechnology investments. Its June-quarter 13F listed 325 positions, StockZoa data show, and a small set of consumer companies appeared among them. Freshpet was the largest of those at about $75 million. Amazon followed at $68 million and Uber at $36 million. Crocs stood at $13 million, Airbnb and e.l.f. Beauty at $11 million each, and Best Buy at $9.7 million. Nike and Starbucks came in at $7 million apiece. Starbucks was new to the portfolio in the quarter.

InsiderSet calculates that Freshpet made up about 2.06% of Armistice’s reported long equity holdings. For BlackRock, Vanguard, Wellington and State Street, each of which owns thousands of securities, Freshpet’s weight was a small fraction of that. StockZoa, which counts the fund’s index options when it computes portfolio weights, shows Freshpet at 0.9%.

Armistice had cut the position in the first quarter. At March 31, the stake was worth $64.5 million, according to Arkolith’s tabulation of that filing. The fund then bought shares again between April and June.

Dog Food Spending Grows Slowly, and Mostly Through Price

On Jan. 28, William Blair’s consumer research group, led by analyst Jon Andersen, released a category study titled “The Battle for the (Dog Food) Bowl.” It describes a market in which spending per dog keeps rising while the number of buyers grows slowly.

The report counts about 68 million U.S. dog-owning households, up from about 57 million a decade earlier, a low-single-digit annual growth rate. Those households have consistently made up about half of the country. Dog food sales in measured retail, which leaves out online, club and specialty stores, totaled about $16 billion in 2025. With those channels added, the figure was about $23 billion, with 8% annual growth over four years.

William Blair estimated per-household dog food spending growth at about 7% a year. Premiumization and price and mix accounted for that increase, the report said, not new households entering the category.

NielsenIQ data in Freshpet’s presentation put U.S. pet food sales at about $57 billion for the 52 weeks ended June 27. Dog food and treats made up about $38 billion of that total. Freshpet’s share of dog food and treats was 4.3%, up from 4.2% in the 52 weeks ended March 28.

The makeup of the dog population also affects how many pounds of food are sold. At the Barclays Global Consumer Staples Conference on Sept. 8, General Mills Chief Operating Officer Dana McNabb pointed to slower pet adoption and a shift from larger to smaller dogs, Petfood Industry reported. Smaller dogs eat fewer pounds of food, which reduces volume in traditional dog food formats.

Nestlé’s results show a similar pace at the top of the category. Purina’s 2.8% organic growth in the second quarter of 2026 included 2% real internal growth and 0.8% from pricing, and its first-half organic growth was 2.7%. Nestlé said dog food improved during the second quarter and that inventory reductions by U.S. retailers held back growth in the Americas. In the first half of 2025, Purina’s organic growth had been 1.3%, and Nestlé Chief Financial Officer Anna Manz said at the time, “The growth of [the] pet category has come down from a year ago, but is now stabilizing.”

Fresh Takes Share From the Largest Brands

Fresh dog food is still a small part of the market. William Blair puts fresh sales across all channels at about $2 billion at retail, 8% of total dog food sales. The segment’s four-year compound annual growth rate was 28% in measured retail and close to 30% when other channels are included.

The average fresh buyer spends about $120 to $130 a year on fresh products, the report found. The average dog food buyer spends about $300 a year on dog food of all kinds. A low-double-digit percentage of U.S. households bought fresh, compared with about 60% that bought any dog food.

William Blair’s 2025 brand table, which covers measured-retail dog food sales excluding treats, shows how share changed from 2021 to 2025:

  • Purina (Nestlé): $3.2 billion in sales, 5% compound annual growth, 30% share, down 280 basis points
  • Pedigree (Mars): $1.73 billion, 6% growth, 16% share, down 40 basis points
  • Freshpet: $1.21 billion, 27% growth, 11% share, up 570 basis points
  • Blue Buffalo (General Mills): $789 million, 6% growth, 7% share, down 40 basis points
  • Cesar (Mars): $635 million, no growth, 6% share, down 190 basis points

Freshpet’s 11% share in that table and its 4.3% share in the company’s own presentation rest on different bases. William Blair counts dog food alone in measured retail. NielsenIQ’s $38 billion base includes treats.

According to William Blair, Freshpet accounted for about 95% of fresh dog food sales in measured retail. Each of its distribution points generated about 26% more in retail sales than the top dog food brand’s did, though its all-commodity-volume distribution was 60% compared with the leader’s 79%. “Clearly fresh dog food has been, and should continue to be, the growth engine for the category,” the analysts wrote.

Estimates of the segment’s eventual size differ. General Mills has said, “The fresh (dog food) segment is more than $3 billion in retail sales today,” and expects it could reach $10 billion within a decade, according to the report. Chewy sizes the opportunity at “somewhere in the $8 billion to $12 billion range” over the next several years. Freshpet has set a target of its own: “We believe we can reach 33 million households.” That figure is about twice its current household count.

Margins, Capacity and Cash

William Blair estimates Freshpet’s gross margin rose by about 1,000 basis points from 2022 to 2025. It ended 2025 at 46%. In the second quarter of 2026, adjusted gross margin was 48.6%, up 170 basis points from 46.9%, and GAAP gross margin was 42.1%, up from 40.9%. Management now expects full-year adjusted gross margin to improve by 100 to 150 basis points, compared with 50 to 100 basis points in its earlier guidance.

Adjusted EBITDA was $52.2 million, up from $44.4 million, for a margin of 17.1%. Net income came to $19.5 million, compared with $16.4 million in the second quarter of 2025. A $4.5 million gain on Freshpet’s equity investment in Ollie contributed to that figure. Ollie, a direct-to-consumer fresh pet food company in which Freshpet held a non-controlling interest, was acquired by Agrolimen.

Logistics costs went up and media costs went down. Logistics rose to 6.9% of sales from 5.7% because of fuel costs and limited trucking capacity, according to the MarketBeat call summary. Media spending fell to 13.4% of sales from 15%.

The biggest change was in cash. Free cash flow for the quarter was $14.7 million, compared with $0.5 million a year earlier. For the first half, free cash flow totaled $27.4 million after capital spending of $57.3 million. Freshpet had $350.8 million in cash at the end of June. Through the end of July, it repurchased 1.6 million shares for $86.5 million under a $150 million authorization.

Freshpet operates 16 production lines in three plants and plans to have 24 when the build-out is complete. The Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, kitchen runs all seven of its planned lines. Kitchen South runs four of seven, and the plant in Ennis, Texas, runs five of 10. Three lines use a new bag technology that is still in start-up. Freshpet expects it to add about 25 basis points to gross margin in 2026 and more than 100 basis points after the equipment is fully optimized. Cyr said the company has “ample capacity to support projected demand this year and much of 2027.”

Management raised its 2027 adjusted gross margin target to at least 49%, from at least 48%, and kept its adjusted EBITDA margin target of 20% to 22%. It expects net sales growth “well in excess of the category growth rate.”

Competitors Move Into the Refrigerated Aisle

General Mills introduced Blue Buffalo Love Made Fresh nationwide in October 2025, sold in scoop-and-serve tubs and slice-and-serve rolls. McNabb said sales of the line rose 80% in General Mills’ fiscal fourth quarter and 30% in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, and that the products were in about 6,000 refrigerated displays, according to Petfood Industry. William Blair counted nearly 39,000 Freshpet-branded fridges in stores at the start of 2026.

General Mills’ wider pet business had a weaker year. North America Pet net sales rose 6% to $2.61 billion in fiscal 2026. The Whitebridge acquisition and an extra week added 8 points of that growth, and organic net sales fell 3%. McNabb described “acute challenges” at the Blue Buffalo Wilderness line.

Mars sells fresh food under the Cesar, Royal Canin and Nom Nom names. Nestlé does not prioritize fresh dog food, though it has a small fresh and frozen brand, Merrick, William Blair noted. As more owners have moved to fresh, Purina’s overall growth has trailed the category, the report said. The Farmer’s Dog leads the market for fresh frozen food delivered directly to consumers.

Price has not contributed to Freshpet’s growth this year. Cyr told analysts that higher gas prices and weaker consumer sentiment had made shoppers less willing to trade up in pet food, MarketBeat reported. Freshpet’s price and mix fell 2% in the first quarter and 0.2% in the second. Chief Financial Officer John O’Connor said the company would “remain cautiously optimistic with our outlook for the remainder of the year given the volatile macro environment.”

Third-Quarter Results Due Nov. 4

Freshpet will release third-quarter results before the market opens on Wednesday, Nov. 4, and hold a conference call at 8 a.m. Eastern. The company has already told investors to expect reported third-quarter growth to come in more than two percentage points lower because of a large club customer’s expansion and the timing of July 4 orders in 2025. The low end of its full-year sales range assumes current economic conditions continue.

Form 13F filings covering the third quarter are due 45 days after Sept. 30, in mid-November. Armistice, BlackRock, Vanguard, Wellington and State Street will report their Freshpet holdings as of that date on the same schedule, about a week after Freshpet’s results come out.